Dealing with Losing Runs
Nothing in life will give you guaranteed profits every time. No matter how good the odds are, you will lose sometimes. Therefore, it is important to understand how to deal with this.
Matched betting is a smart way to win money. Yet, not everyone understands that the occasional loss is to be expected. Once you get to grips with this concept, everything else is easier to understand.
Loss Aversion – Most People Weight a Loss Twice as Heavily as a Gain
There is a fascinating subject known as loss aversion. It is something that has been known about in psychology for many years. The basic idea is that losing money is felt more intense than gaining money.
Let’s say that you lose £10. The next week you win £10. Which one triggers more powerful sensations? Studies tell us that it is losing the money that will be what you feel most.
In fact, it has been seen that we feel losses around twice as much as gains. So, what if you lost £100 and then gained £200 later on? In this example, they would probably feel about the same level of intensity to you.
It doesn’t seem to make sense when you look at it logically, does it? Losing £10 and gaining the same amount should feel equally good or bad. It is exactly the same amount of money.
This is all about how people really, really don’t like losing money. In fact, they would rather miss the chance to win than run the risk of losing.
The interesting thing is that this applies even when the odds are in your favour, What if you could bet £1? Let’s say that you have a 50/50 chance of winning £2 profit + £1 stake back. Most people would still not go for it.
They’d rather not put their own £1 at risk. Increase the possible winnings and a lot of people still won’t be tempted. The video below shows a terrific experiment that explains exactly how loss aversion works.
The odds and potential profits need to be excellent to tempt most folk to take on a wager. Start putting up the possible profit to see how more and more people finally give it a go.
So, a good chance of winning alone isn’t enough to make us bet. Most of us need to have the odds heavily in our favour. Or else we need to believe that there is absolutely no chance of losing.
Sadly, the risk of losing can’t be removed altogether. This means that people tend to steer clear or really good deals just because they might lose.
This matter isn’t to be confused with risk aversion. It is a different subject that sees people prefer safety and certainty. In the case of risk aversion, someone will take a lower return if it involves less risk. A guaranteed £10 return is seen as being better than a possible £20 or £30.
Understand Where the Value Comes From
The loss aversion that we just looked at is something that is built into our brains. It makes us instinctively shy away from possible losses. Even when logic tells us that the bet makes sense we might shun it.
Now that we understand the matter, it is easier to look at it with a clear head. What type of wager makes sense? When should good sense overcome our natural loss aversion? You need to get past your natural instinct of avoiding losing at all costs.
This is all about understanding the value of the bet. What does it offer to help you make up your mind? If there isn’t enough value it should be avoided.
This is why the estimated value (EV) in matched betting is crucial. This number tells you what is won on average over numerous repetitions. It lets you look beyond the idea of one bet taken in isolation.
Don’t Jump in the Deep End
So far, we have seen that loss aversion is completely natural. However, by looking at it in detail, it is possible to understand when to take on a wager.
That doesn’t mean that you should dive in at the deep end, though. It makes sense to get started gently. Get a feeling for different strategies before you go in big on anything.
An example is with small each way bets. What about starting off with 1000 25p e/w bets? This is enough to let you see how it works. You can look to increase the stakes after this.
This approach lets you see the way it all works. There is very little downside to doing it in this way. It should help to increase your confidence levels. It will also give you enough of a profit to encourage you to keep going.
You can also look at doing your first casino offers this way. Simply start off with the lower risk or risk-free deals. This will let you see how it works without any hassle.
Why not do 100 casino offers? You can then look at your results to date. This should let you pick up a handsome profit. You will also see that you have done it with fairly little risk.
Even if you lost out on some offers, it doesn’t matter. The overall results from 100 offers are virtually certain to be a profit (providing they are low risk).
There will be plenty of time later on to try higher risk offers. You can carry them out once you are more comfortable with matched betting. Since there is more chance of a losing streak, you need to be ready to deal with this.
What will help you to keep going through a sticky patch? Over time, it will be the knowledge that it will work out well in the end. Experience will tell you that you will eventually turn a profit.
However, what if this difficult spell comes early on? It can be more difficult to draw strength from somewhere when you lack experience. Giving up can seem tempting if you don’t win what you expected to.
This is why it is a great idea to record your results. This lets you see the long-term trends. You can also see the value coming through over time. This will help you to keep your confidence high.
So, if you have won 80% of the time what does this tell you? It shows that you can expect to win far more than you lose. If you keep using the same strategy, the results will continue to be broadly similar.
Don’t change your strategy because of a few losses. If you are looking at low risk casino offers then you might still lose some of them. That doesn’t mean that it is time for a change, though.
A look back at your records should confirm this. If you have won far more than you have lost this trend is likely to continue. Changing your strategy will be a big mistake.
If your strategy is good, you don’t need to change it. You will start winning again sooner rather than later. Losing runs only carry on if you have a poor strategy in place.
Don’t forget what we looked at earlier. We feel losses more than wins. So you will probably remember the bad days more than the good ones. If you forget about many of your wins then you aren’t getting a true reflection of your success.
Bankroll Management Is Key
In any type of betting, your bankroll management is crucial. This is what lets you carry on making money day after day.
It becomes even more important during a losing run. Don’t lose your head and start chasing losses. Just keep on looking after your money and doing the right things.
If you are carrying out casino offers how much should you risk? This should be limited to 1% of your bankroll. High risk offers this should be no more than 0.5% of the bankroll.
What if you are making e/w bets? In this case, stick to the same figure. Don’t ever risk more than 1% of your bankroll.
It is important to readjust this figure every day. This helps to keep you in control of the situation at all times. Do this and you won’t run any risk of losing your bank.
Recommended Sample of Offers
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. You can read about how to deal with losing runs all day long. But you will only be convinced once you do it in real life.
You shouldn’t draw conclusions based on a small sample. To fully understand this subject, you need to carry out a bigger number of bets. This balances out wins & losses to allow the value to come through.
The best idea is to complete a fixed sample of bets. This lets you see exactly how it works. You will see experience both winning and losing streaks.
Let’s take a look at the recommended sample of bets. This is the figure you need to see a good average of all of your activity. Wins and losses will average out after this amount.
- E/W value system. Look to carry out 1000 bets.
- Low risk casino offers. With 100 offers you can see the average amount you will win in this way.
- High risk casino offers. Use 500 offers based on £1 spins to get a feel for this kind of offer.
Long Term Thinking Is Needed
You should start off by looking at this as a long term way of making money. It isn’t a quick fix. It is a sustainable approach that you can benefit from for a long time.
Ditch the thought that you need to make £50 per day. That way of thinking simply doesn’t work in betting. You need to take a longer term view of your profits. Ideally monthly or quarterly if you’re doing high risk.
This will help to keep you earning money with no fears for a long time to come. If you understand the value then you will be comfortable carrying on.
Of course, people start up matched betting for many different reasons. Some want a second income. Others want the flexibility of earning money from home.
You shouldn’t start doing this to earn a quick buck. If you need guaranteed cash urgently this isn’t the solution. You don’t want to start off under financial pressure.
Instead, look at it as something that will be extremely worthwhile over time. You will be making a solid decision for your future. It is something that you will be glad to have done when you look back later on.
You also need to set realistic expectations at the outset. If you expect to never lose you will eventually be disappointed. You might win day after day for a week or so.
When you eventually suffer an unexpected loss it will hit you hard. You might forget all the wins if you weren’t prepared for a loss.
Keep Your Emotions in Check
It’s easy to get emotional if you have a few bad days. This is as true for matched betting as it is for most things in life. Things can look bleak if you have some bad luck.
At first, it can seem difficult to stay strong. Losing money is a pain. As we saw at the beginning, the effect of losing is twice as strong as when you win. It is natural to get frustrated or even angry.
However, this isn’t going to get you anywhere. You need to stay calm to carry on winning. This means learning to keep your emotions under control.
Understanding that losing is part of the deal is vital. Bagging casino bonuses without the some losses isn’t possible. There is just no way to avoid it. So you need to learn how to deal with it at one point or another.
It is also worth pointing out that this applies when you win too. You can’t afford to get carried away and lose your head. The strategy that has achieved your success so far is the road forward.
Getting too emotional could affect you in different ways. You might start chasing your losses. You might get fed up and quit. One thing it won’t do is help you to win more.
How do you keep your emotions in check? Understanding what is happening is probably the key. If you are prepared for losses you won’t be taken back by it.
Take a deep breath and look at your results to date.
Trust the Estimated Value (EV)
Stick with the information above and push through with it. The EV figure is a tried and trusted way of seeing how much you can earn over a large enough sample of bets.
Over time, your winnings will revert to the mean. So don’t lose faith after a few losses. These are to be expected and are taken into account.
It may feel like you have a mountain to climb but it always comes around. The odds are stacked in your favour, after all.
The EV isn’t a figure that is plucked out of thin air. It has been carefully worked out. This doesn’t mean that it is a cast-iron guarantee. But you can trust it to be an excellent indicator over time.
Never take up an offer before you check the the value. It is a vital piece of information.
Always do your research before starting new strategies too. You need to know the EV, the advantages and any disadvantages. As mentioned earlier, start slowly so you understand the downsides.
Don’t forget that good bankroll management is the key to succeeding. This applies to winning runs as well as to losing streaks.
Dealing with Losing Runs Conclusion
We all hate losing. It is even worse when our cash is on the line.
Matched betting provides a powerful way of earning money with the lowest possible risk. Some newcomers make the mistake of thinking this means that they will never lose.
We have seen that this isn’t the case. However, we have also seen how to deal with any losing streaks. Stick to this advice and losing now and then will no longer be a big deal.