How Can You Use Dropping Odds to Your Advantage?
The meaning of the term “dropping odds” seems fairly obvious. Clearly, this is about odds that fall, right? Yet, there is more to the subject than meets the eye.
First of all, we need to look at what dropping odds really mean. As part of this, we will see what factors can drive this change. Then, we can see what kind of strategy you need to benefit from them.
In this way, you can find out whether a dropping odds strategy suits you. It isn’t right for everyone, but let’s see what it is all about before you make that decision.
What Are Dropping Odds?
We should start with some sort of basic explanation. It is clear that this subject refers to odds that are falling. This means that you are getting less value over time as they drop. An attractive bet can seem less so if the price keeps falling.
So, dropping odds sees the value going lower. If you wait, the odds will fall further. This will see your chances of value plunge more. Simply put, the amount you could win is now less than it was before the drop.
On the other hand, is there more chance of the bet paying out? The fact that the odds have fallen suggests that something has changed. The bookies are now being more cautious about the amount they would have to pay out.
An example will help to make this clearer. I just looked at the odds for Man Utd vs Norwich. The away team are currently listed to odds of 11 to win. Imagine I look again in half an hour. I might now see that they have dropped to 10. What if they are lower again an hour later?
It could be that I look again and see a further fall. This is a clear case of dropping odds. The good news is that it is now easier than before to spot this trend. Online betting gives you access to a wealth of odds information.
You can very quickly see how the market is moving. It is all about checking regularly and spotting trends. Most bookie sites will show you the odds history anyway. This lets you see what has been happening.
Don’t forget that any difference in odds is crucial. Even a relatively small change will make a difference to your winnings. This directly affects the value that you get.
The big question is whether you can turn this on its head. Can you use dropping odds to place clever bets? The next step in this process is to see why the numbers are falling.
Why Do Dropping Odds Occur?
Have you ever stopped to think about how often odds change? This is a feature of online betting in particular. It is a fast-moving environment with frequent shifts in the market.
Of course, odds don’t always move in the same direction. They might get shorter, which sees the odds become smaller. Or they might lengthen instead. This is when the numbers get larger.
These changes can happen at any time. Odds can shift long before an event takes place. Or they might move just before it starts. You will also see that the odds can change once the action gets underway.
You could look at the betting markets as being similar to financial markets. People are always buying or selling. This affects the whole marketplace and causes the odds to move.
Big games or races that are heavily backed may change more slowly. With more people betting, it takes a bigger shift to alter the numbers. However, this also means that it could gain more momentum. If lots of people make the same decision, the odds can swing heavily.
In events with a smaller market, bigger swings can happen easily. A good example is the highly volatile market for betting on the new football manager for a certain team. Due to the relatively small number of wagers, new favourites come and go regularly.
We can go back to that Man U vs Norwich example from earlier. What if some dramatic team news get leaked early? Or if it is announced that the home team have sacked their manager? These are big changes that will make bettors re-consider their position.
Twitter and other online sources are good for finding out information before it is general knowledge. However, not all of the news broken on social media is true. You need to only act on information from trusted sources.
Or it could simply be the bookies reacting to more bets being placed. There isn’t always a logical reason for this. It could be a false online rumour or word of mouth at the event itself. If you don’t know why the odds are dropping, it is almost impossible to formulate a suitable strategy.
Some people also point to the heavy boat theory. This is when a bet becomes too heavily loaded on one side. When a bet moves up two levels of odds, the theory suggests that the opposite outcome will occur.
Therefore, there are different reasons for odds dropping. You need to know which of these is the true cause in order to benefit. This can be the toughest part of the entire process.
How Online Bookmakers React to the Market
These days, most bookies react quickly to market changes. This means that the odds they offer tend to be similar across the board. If the situation changes, they will all react to it more or less at the same time.
This is how can see dropping odds across the market. It is highly unlikely that you see the odds dropping with just one bookmaker. Others will follow suit in this case. It could soon be the case that every bookie does the same thing.
An odds comparison site will let you view a number of bookies at one time. This can be confusing if there are too many options listed, though. It is best to concentrate on the bookies that you actually use and whose numbers you trust.
For many bettors, the Holy Grail is finding a value bet. This is when a bookie hasn’t moved with the market. In this case, they will be offering better odds than elsewhere. This approach can be done but it certainly isn’t easy to do it manually.
You aren’t guaranteed a win in this case. After all, you still need to correctly predict the outcome. Yet, finding value odds gives you a better chance of tasty wins. This is why there are services and strategies dedicated to find these bets.
However, bookies are trying hard to close these loopholes. Most of them now use the latest technology to follow the market. Because of this, they can react to any changes almost immediately.
Is There a Strategy for Dropping Odds?
The most important point of all is how you can benefit from falling odds. Is there a way of making money in this situation? Or can you maximise the profits that you win on your bets?
Basically, you want to grab as much value as you can. This means getting hold of the best possible bets. You want to spot those opportunities to get extra value from the bookies.
This can mean using dropping odds to your benefit. As we saw a bit earlier, dropping odds are usually based on a change that has happened. There has been some sort of change to the situation that has caused this to happen.
Check the Betfair odds for the selection. If a bookie has higher odds than Betfair, you can find value there. Place your bet while the odds are good.
The key is in understanding the situation quickly. And then moving before it is too late. To be fair, this is what makes it so exciting.
As with all strategies, timing is crucial. You need to get this aspect right to make money.
How Do You Know Whether the Odds Are Good Value?
To understand whether specific odds are good, you need to know the true odds. If you can see different prices from different bookies, which odds are right?
There is no way of knowing how good odds are just by looking at the numbers. Bear in mind that the bookies have margins built into their odds. They want to make money rather than give you a fair price.
Thankfully, this is where betting exchanges come into play. These platforms allow punters to come together in one place. You are now betting against other people rather than bookies.
Instead of a bookie setting the odds, the market does this. This means that that the odds you can see are true odds. For a start, there is no bookmaker margin included in the numbers.
The odds that you see on a betting exchange reflect the market. If new information comes out, this will be reflected instantly. The wisdom of the crowd ensures that prices flow according to market conditions.
You can trust the odds on here to show you the current situation. This is very useful, as you can get a constant view of the ever-changing picture.
Therefore, you can compare the odds on an exchange to bookie odds. If the bookies odds differ in your favour from those on the exchange, it is time to take advantage. The bookie hasn’t yet caught up with the mood in the market.
Some bookmakers are slower than others in reacting to changes. This is where you can jump in and get good value.
In the best case, you can maximise your winnings like this. That means taking the following steps.
- Identify the true odds on an exchange website
- Find bookies who haven’t reacted to the dropping odds yet
- Decide if the bet is worthwhile and likely to win you money
- Place a value bet before the bookies changes their odds
This may sound very simple to do. Yet, it can be an extremely difficult and time-consuming thing to do.
You need to be quick too. This is because it is a race against time to place a bet before the bookie reacts. You need to try and get your money on before the odds drop in line with the market. This may be just a matter of minutes or even seconds.
As I pointed out earlier, this isn’t a guarantee of winning. All you are doing is placing odds at a price that is higher than the true odds. This gives you greater value but the correct outcome still has to occur.
We can go back to the Man Utd example again for this. What if the market in general has the odds on Norwich at 9 by kick-off time? But one bookies is still running with a price of 11?
Clearly, there is extra value in that standout price. It is still a long shot that the team actually win, though. The greater value is worthless if your bet doesn’t come up. You need the combination of good odds and a bet you think will win.
This shows that you can’t choose a bet just because the odds have dropped elsewhere. There also needs to be a reason for believing this outcome will actually happen.
Who Does a Dropping Odds Strategy Suit?
We have already seen that beginners might not be too keen on this kind of strategy. It is an approach that needs patience and a good knowledge of the betting markets. You might get confused if you are new to sports betting.
This means it is more suitable for someone with more experience. Since it is exciting, it could be right a bettor who is looking to add some extra fun to their days. Anyone who is a bit jaded with normal betting might decide to spice up their life like this.
Remember that you don’t just rely on seeing that the odds are falling. You also need to know why this is happening. Generally, this means that more people are betting on this option. But what else do you know about the bet?
Is there now a far greater chance of a certain outcome? Has something changed that makes the event far more likely to happen? The falling odds are simply a sign of this that alerts you to the possibility.
This means that you need to understand the betting market. There is no sensible way to dive in and just start betting on events with falling odds.
You also need to understand the concept of momentum in the betting market. Can you get in before an emerging trend becomes something bigger? This needs a high degree of experience in betting for you to get it right.
It is important for every bettor to be aware of dropping odds. However, for most people there is no need to build a strategy around the subject.
Rather, it is an extra piece of information to take into account. It is just something that you will want to understand. You will now know how to interpret changing market situations more.