We all want to win as much money from the bookies as possible. If we can keep the risk levels low while doing it then this is ideal.

You may already know that matched betting is a great way of making profit. Yet, there will be situations in which you can’t use the standard approach. What should you do in these cases?

It is a good idea to have as many strings to your bow as possible. The more ways you have of making a profit the better. So what idea are we looking at here?

There are some instances when advantage play in matched betting can save the day. It is also something that can give you another option once you are experienced in matched betting. Either way, it is something that it is well worth knowing about.

How does it work? And what do you need to do to get started? Let’s look at what this strategy is all about.

What is Advantage Play in Matched Betting?

As the name suggests, this is a type of matched betting. However, there are some big differences between advantage play in matched betting and other matched betting approaches.

The most noticeable difference is that there is no lay bet involved. This might seem strange at first. After all, you may be used to matched betting being made up of two sides every time.

However, this strategy is different. You only need to place your bet with the bookmaker. There is no need to use Betfair or any other betting exchange. So, there is no lay bet at all.

How does this work? It is all about extracting the most value. To do this you need to consider the odds carefully. Getting the right odds will put you on the track to profits.

Even more importantly, you need to make the most of bookmaker offers. These deals are giving you free money to take advantage of. They are the foundations for building a profit from advantage play in matched betting.

In some situations, you might decide to use this strategy. I will look in a minute at why you might do this.

The other possibility is that you can’t place a lay bet for some reason. Maybe there is no market on the exchanges for it. Or perhaps there is no liquidity on the exchange.

You might also find that the bookie’s offer isn’t suitable for a lay bet approach. For example, some deals require you to place bets on several events taking place at the same time.

In any of these cases, this is the solution you can turn to. But is it something that suits your personality and betting needs?

Who Is This Suitable For?

You may wonder who exactly advantage play in matched betting is right for. After all, each different betting strategy tends to be right for certain people. Is this an approach that you should be interested in?

There are actually some different types of situation where this can come in handy. One example is when you want to save time. This is typically something that will interest advanced users.

So, let’s says that you are comfortable with basic matched betting techniques. You may now want to get more offers more quickly. Advantage play in matched betting lets you do this. Not all of us can spend a lot of time on placing bets every day.

If you are under pressure at work or at home this is ideal. You just need to place a bet with the bookie and wait for the result. This chops a fair bit of time off the whole process.

The reason why it is faster is that you don’t need to place a lay bet. This seriously speeds up the whole process. However, this isn’t the only case when it can come in handy.

Another example is when you come across an offer that can’t have a lay bet on it. This applies to the likes of Request a Bets. In these cases, you have to look at the advantage play approach to place your bet.

In terms of your personality, why would you make this decision? The likelihood is that you are happier to lose some bets. This isn’t a system build on small but constant wins.

Rather, you will win some and lost some. The overall idea is that the results average out into a handsome profit over time.

Examples of an Advantage Play in Matched Betting offer

So far, so good. But how does this actually work in real life? What steps do you need to take to make the most of this strategy? The good news is that it is pretty easy to get started with.

We could start by looking at the example of a Coral Virtual Sports offer. So, let’s say that the deal involves us putting a £20 bet on a certain horse. Naturally, if our pick wins the race then we pick up a nice profit.

Since you can’t lay Virtual Sport bets off, what is your best strategy to avoid losing? The smartest idea is to place the qualifier using the minimum odds allowed.

This means that you can expect odds of 2.0. What this means is that you should win the qualifying bet about half the time. You will lose it the rest of the time, of course. On those occasions where it loses, you will lose your stake.

When you get a free £20 bet, you want to get as much value out of it as possible. How do you do this? Well, you should be looking at selections with odds of 4.0 or above.

Remember that free bets are always done on a stake not returned basis. This gives you a 25% chance of making a profit using the free bet.

Now, does a 25% chance of winning sound pretty small to you? It might at first, but this is extracting the maximum amount of value out the free bet. The winnings will average out if you place a lot of bets like this.

Therefore, the key is in taking part in lots of these offers. The more you place, the more that 25% win rate will return to you in cash. Given enough time, this can be a very profitable approach to take.

Where the Value Comes From

It may still seem difficult for you to see where the value comes from. If you are new to matched betting then you might wonder whether it really makes sense. Are you making the most of the bookmaker offers in this way?

You should remember that the value always comes from the bonus money. You aren’t going to make any money from doing this without using offers. If you just use your own money then you are probably going to lose.

For instance, why not take a look at your Exchange balance. Take a look and see how much you are down over the last 3 months. For most Matched Bettors, this doesn’t make for pleasant reading.

Looking at the image above shows a £4680.89 loss at Smarkets over 30 days all from laying off bonuses. If those bets had not been layed, that would have meant an extra £4680.89 profit. Obviously most users won’t be betting this much, it’s an extreme example.

With advantage play in matched betting, the value is with the bookmakers. After a large enough sample of bets, you will see where the profit comes from.

Keep looking for value with your advantage play in matched betting. The results might not appear obvious at first. However, over time extracting the maximum value will give you healthy profits.

Effective Odds – How Do You Work Out if a Bet Has Value?

With any type of matched betting, choosing the right bet is crucial. Get this right and you are on your way to winning money. Get it wrong and expect to lose cash instead.

This means getting odds that suit you. If the odds are wrong your bet is doomed. You need to turn the table on the bookies and put the advantage in your favour.

To do this well, you need to understand what effective odds are. Quite simply, these are the actual odds that you will have taken. This is based on your potential winnings from your qualifying loss.

This is probably a lot easier to get to grips with using an example. Let’s say that your qualifying loss is £1. In this example, we can imagine you stand to earn £50 profit. This adds up to give you effective odds of 50.

How do you calculate your effective odds, then? It is quite easy, really.

Effective Odds = Profit / Qualifying Loss.

You should work out this simple calculation on every bet you are about to place. It will only take a moment to do.

When is a deal worth looking at? Basically, when the effective odds are higher than the equivalent Betfair lay odds for the same outcome happening. In an ideal world, it will be a good few points higher. This gives you more value.

If you place bets without this calculation then you aren’t fully in control. Therefore, you won’t be making the best use of the offers.

The Efficiency of the Exchange Market

In the example we just looked at, we used Betfair to help work out the true odds. You may wonder why we did this. Why is Betfair used as an indicator of the real odds on a bet?

Well, quite simply Betfair is a highly efficient market. In fact, we can say that same about any betting exchange. There are a number of reasons why this is the case.

In fact, I have looked at the efficiency of Betfair in the past. There are plenty of reasons why this is the case. For a start, it is a sharp bookmaker that instantly reacts to changes.

The wisdom of crowds ensures their odds are highly efficient. By using the knowledge of a wide range of users, they have more accurate odds.

All of this means that we can trust the efficiency of the exchange markets. So, it is a great way of calculating whether a bet really has value. You can safely trust the figures that you work out in this way for advantage play in matched betting.

Bankroll management

Keeping on top of your bankroll management is another vital matter. If you are going to make money from advantage play in matched betting this is crucial. Let it run out of control and you are probably getting into trouble.

So how will you do this effectively? The first important point is that you should never risk more than 0.5% of your bankroll on any one offer. This is the absolute maximum that you should be putting at risk.

After all, there’s no point in taking the risk. You could end up busting your bank if you bet more than this. Take the safe and steady approach. This isn’t about getting one huge win. It is a sustainable strategy for the long term.

Another point is on the odds for free bets. Ideally, you will keep them at a figure below 10.0. You can extract more value at higher odds. But it isn’t worth the risk.

Do these things and you will be giving yourself a solid approach.

Law of Large Numbers and Mean Reversion

This sounds like a complicated subject, doesn’t it? The good news is that it isn’t really. All it means is that the more you bet, the closer you will get to the average return.

This is especially important with advantage play in matched betting. As we saw earlier you may lose on some bets. In others, you may get a small profit. At first, it might look as though this strategy isn’t worth the effort.

However, some good wins will be there for you before too long. Over time, you will see your average profit level out. It is only after doing this for a while can you truly judge it.

The strategy works but you need to give it time. So don’t try it if you don’t the patience or bankroll to keep going. If you give up after a short time you might lose money. Keep going and you should win a nice amount.

This means being patient for a while. Your early results aren’t the be all and end all. Keep betting and you will see the average profit start to become clearer.

Is It Worth Doing Advantage Play If You Have 0% Commission?

What if you have a 0% exchange deal? Is it worth using the advantage play approach in that case? This is a great question that deserves to be looked into.

The fact is that you would be better laying the bets in this case. Why is this so? Well, one of the main reasons for using this method is to avoid paying commission. This helps to boost any profits that are made.

Yet, is the extra profit on top of a 0% deal going to add up to much? No, this isn’t going to be much more.

However, there is still a situation where this might be worthwhile. This is when you simply want to save some time. What if you are too busy to dedicate a lot of time to matched betting? Then advantage play is a perfectly fine way to do it more quickly.

Which is the best Matched Betting site for Advantage Play?

The best site for Advantage Play is Profit Maximiser. It’s been around since 2013 with over 20,000 people completing a full years membership. It’s full of professional Matched Bettors who are using this strategy.

If you want to learn advanced Matched Betting methods to increase your results, Profit Maximiser is the best site for that. Most other sites focus on very basic newbie offers which is why most people don’t make much money.

There’s a 14 day trial for £1 running at the moment. Click here for more information.

Downsides to Using This Strategy

As with any type of betting strategy, there are some downsides to using advantage play in matched betting. Are these enough to make you think twice about it?

The main issue to look at is that of losing runs. This is something that you need to deal with using this strategy.

If you don’t want to have losing streaks then you could stick to traditional matched betting. In that way, you will rarely lose. Even then the losses will minimal.

The higher the odds you choose, the lower the chance of winning. This means that you could have longer losing runs.

Benefits to Using This Strategy

It is now time to look at the potential benefits. Are there enough of them for you give this a try?

You may be particularly interested in the time-saving aspect. There is no time-consuming laying off to take into account. After you have put on your bet with the bookmaker that’s it.

This is a crucial benefit for many people. What if you work full-time and have a busy lifestyle? Through use of advantage play in matched betting you can still make money from the bookies.

Another good point is that you don’t need to keep funds in a betting exchange. If you like to keep your money in one place then this is ideal. You just need to have money with the bookies that you use.

It is also worth noting that the estimated value is higher with this approach. This is because you aren’t paying commission. There is no lay commission on winning bets to worry about.

Advantage Play in Matched Betting conclusion

This is a smart way of betting. There is no doubt that it has some advantages and a few disadvantages as well.

All in all, advantage play in matched betting is right for some people. But it isn’t right for everyone. It really depends upon what is most important to you. By fully understanding this strategy, you at least have another good option to consider.

The post Advantage Play in Matched Betting appeared first on Mike Cruickshank.

We all know the majority of the online players lose money from casinos and sports betting in the long run. The reasons are obvious – the gambling operators have a predefined edge. The average user simply can’t beat it to make money. In this guide I will be talking about Advantage Gambling including estimated value theory.

However, it’s not impossible to be profitable. You have to rely on the so-called “advantage gambling” or “advantage play”. This is an approach that relies on mathematics and positive expected value. It allows you to find spots where you turn the tables and actually have the edge against the casino or the bookie. It’s not easy, but it’s doable. I will show you how to achieve advantage gambling in this post.

Advantage Betting In Sports

Let’s start with sports betting. Before I discuss specific advantage gambling strategies, let’s see how the bookies actually make money.

Bookie odds and betting margin

The first thing you need to learn is how the sportsbooks determine the odds they offer. The process may slightly vary in the different bookies, but the fundamentals are the same.

For a start, each operator has an army of traders that work with all the data you can imagine, as well as the best tools for analysis out there. They come up with the mathematical probabilities for each game based on processing the information they have. I would say the bookies are pretty good in this and it’s close to impossible to find a better way to evaluate any event they offer.

So, they now have a pretty good idea what to expect. It’s time to add the next factor – the cash projections. Simply put, the sportsbooks want the money of the punters to be spread in such a way that they have similar profit whatever happens.

The easiest way to achieve that is to skew the odds based on their cash projections. This means offering a better price for outcomes where fewer players are expected to bet and vice versa. Once the odds are live, they follow the distribution of the bets and act accordingly.

The betting margin

There is one final step that actually makes it so hard to beat the bookies. After all is set and done with the odds, they actually add an additional margin which guarantees their profits. It varies between 2-3% and 10% depending on the sportsbook and the event.

The easiest way to see how the betting margin works would be to take a closer look at a random market. For example, let’s take the over/under 2.5 goals in football. You will often see odds like 1.90 for both outcomes. If you place an equal bet of £10 on each of the two options, you will get £19 back whatever happens. Since your total wagers were worth £20, that’s a profit of £1 or 5% for the bookmaker.

Such an advantage for the sportsbook is part of each betting market you can find. When you combine in it with the ability to correctly evaluate the odds and the control over the cash flow, it’s easy to see how the bookies make money.

Advantage betting strategies

We now know how the bookies operate in order to achieve profit. But is it profitable to actually find a way to beat them? The short answer is yes, it certainly is.

One of the main reasons are the many promotions available to the players. The sportsbooks are forced to give something back because the competition between them is fierce. There are other factors that could help, but let’s move on to some concrete ways to find value and apply advantage gambling:

Arbitrage

Probably the best way to make money from sports betting is if you manage to find an arbitrage or sure bet opportunity. The main idea is to find odds that are high enough to ensure a profit no matter what happens in a certain match. I have written a full guide on arbing here.

For example, you see a price of 2.10 for Under 2.5 goals in bookie A and 2.05 for Over 2.5 goals on the same game in bookie B. Covering both would mean a guaranteed profit that doesn’t depend on the match result. It’s a sweet deal and even a couple of percentages in returns are enough, because there is no risk involved.

Unfortunately, there are some downsides in arbitrage betting. For a start, the bookies really hate it and are doing their best to prevent people from taking advantage. As a result, your accounts could easily get closed or gubbed (limited). This makes arbitrage betting somewhat hard and time-consuming. Another popular form of arbitrage is Each Way Arbing.

Matched betting

Some of you probably know what matched betting means and it’s one of the best examples of advantage gambling. This strategy has different ways to work, but the most common one is related to the welcome offers of most bookies.

Similarly to the arbitrage betting, you once again cover all possible outcomes but combine that with a free bet/welcome bonus which brings even better profits. For example, you claim the free wager in the bookie and place it on the certain game. At the same time, you lay the same outcome on Betfair and lock the profits before the match has even started. At the end of the day, you always win.

This is the most common matched betting technique, but there are other options as well. You can check my other posts on the topic, if you want to find other advantage gambling matched betting strategies to make money.

Advantage Gambling In Online Casinos

Let’s see how to make money with advantage gambling when it comes to online casinos.

House edge

Similarly to the last section, we’ll start by dissecting the way each casino secures profit first. Pretty much any game offered has a fixed house edge that makes sure the operator has a positive expected return in the long run at the expense of the players. Let’s take a look at some of the most popular games out there:

Slot machines

Slot machines attract by far the most players when it comes to online casinos. Tons of people pick them because of the exciting gameplay and opportunity to win big in a heartbeat. However, the house edge in slots means you will be losing under normal circumstances.

There is a metric called Return to Player or simply RTP. It shows what percentage of the money placed as bets is returned to the player as prices on average. Most online slots have an RTP of between 90% and 97%. As you could imagine, this means losing about 3-10% of the money you bet each time. The percentage is usually much higher in land-based casinos and can sometimes reach 20-25%! A great deal … for the operator.

Blackjack

There are different variations of blackjack available online, but the fundamental rules are similar. The game is quite popular for a number of reasons and the low house edge of about 0.5% is one of them.

However, Blackjack actually does require the proper strategy. Unlike other casino games like slots and roulette, your decisions during the hand dramatically change your expected value. If blackjack is your choice, make sure to check the rules and google the best strategy for this particular set to give yourself the best chance.

Roulette

Another popular casino game with a relatively low house edge is roulette. In the traditional European roulette, the operator has an advantage of 2.7% thanks to the zero sector of the wheel. If you place French roulette, this could even go down to 1.35% for the even odds markets. A set of rules you should always avoid is the American roulette, where there are two zeros and the house edge is over 5%.

Video poker

The video poker variations are among the games with the lowest house edge out there. The number could be down to even 0.1% in certain variations. However, there is strategy involved once again. I recommend you to try and find it for the game you picked, as the best decisions possible are available on many websites.

Other games

I won’t go into too many details, but I only want to highlight games like Keno and scratch cards. You should be aware those come with some of the highest house you will find online. I’m talking about something 10-15% or even 20%.

Advantage Gambling Casino Strategies

Making money from online casinos seems impossible based on the information so far. But there are people who are profitable thanks to advantage gambling. Once again, the promotions of the gambling operators are your best friend. I’ve written a detailed post about exploiting casino bonuses here.

Risk-free bonuses

Sometimes, you will be able to find casino promotions that involve no risk at all. It doesn’t happen too often, so make sure to take full advantage.

A good example would be no deposit bonuses that intend to promote a new slot machine, for example. The casinos will often give you a small amount such as £5 or £10 to try the game. You won’t become a millionaire from such deals, but it’s literary free money.

Another option would be promos where you get your money back if you lose. For example, bet £10 and get up to £10 back if you don’t win. Of course, you should always check the terms and conditions of such offers, as sometimes there are strings attached that remove your advantage over the casino.

Advanced Advantage Gambling Strategy

The advanced gambling techniques I showed you so far don’t require much of experience. They involve no risk for the player to lose which makes them perfect for every player out there. However, there are two issues. The first of them is that the maximum profit you can get is not that big. On top of that, you won’t find that many opportunities for simple advantage gambling.

If you want to make even more money, there are some advanced advantage gambling strategies that are the real deal. They usually require more effort and there is some risk involved. However, if you are smart and patient, you could make a lot of money. Let’s move on and see how they work:

Casino deposit bonuses

Most casinos bonuses are designed in a way that will benefit the casino in the long term. Furthermore, most players don’t really dig deep to find the best approach possible and eliminate any chance they might have to actually make money from such promotions.

However, some of the deals actually represent a great opportunity for advantage gambling. The most important thing is to learn how to recognise which bonus has a positive expected value. It’s not that hard if you know what are the main factors:

Bonus cash and wagering requirements

All welcome bonuses come with certain wagering requirements. This means you will have to place a certain amount of money, before you unlock the bonus funds for a withdrawal. It’s critical to understand exactly how much cash you get from the bonus and how much you will be required to wager.

For example, an online casino could offer a £200 bonus for a deposit of the same amount. Then, you will have to wager both the deposit and the bonus 20 times prior to a withdrawal. This means you will have to place bets worth (£200 + £200)*20 or £4,000.

Be careful with the calculation. Some online casinos require you to wager only the bonus. Other will include the initial deposit. As you could imagine, the difference is crucial.

The best house edge possible

The next aspect you should explore is the house edge of the games included in the offer you’re targeting. Check the terms and conditions to see what’s accepted by the casino. Most of the time, you will be limited to slots, keno, and scratch cards.

This is why I will give you an example with slot machines. Let’s say the casino will accept 100% of your bets on slots towards the wagering requirements. With a little help from Google, you will be able to find the slots with the best RTP which means lowest house edge.

The final EV calculation

You now have all the ingredients, so it’s time to see what’s your expected value. For that purpose, you must calculate your potential losses after the wagering requirements are done. You can find that by multiplying the overall amount you have to wager by the house edge of the casino.

Basic EV formula: –
Estimated value = Bonus – (wagering requirements x house edge)

There is a more accurate way to calculate EV however it requires a simulator to do the calculations for you. To keep this guide simple I’m going to use this basic formula.

For example, if you have to wager £3,000 and the house edge is 2%, you will lose £60 by the time you cleared the requirements. So, any bonus that is worth at least £61 in this scenario would mean you have a positive expected value. Since you will be able to find bonuses for £100 or even £200 with similar requirements, you will be able to make some good money from advantage gambling. The best way to find value casino bonuses is using a Matched Betting Service to locate them for you.

Bankroll management

You should never forget that such an approach is not risk-free. Expected value doesn’t mean you will get exactly the same result. It means you have an edge over the casino, but a bad streak could ruin that.

This is why proper bankroll management is necessary. Make sure you have enough money to complete the wagering requirements, even if you hit a bad streak at some point. Placing about 2-3% of your bankroll or less would be a good start.

Even if you are extra careful, you can sometimes lose because of the standard deviation. However, you could also win more than expected. The important thing is you will be ahead in the long run and simply have to take advantage of enough offers with a positive expected value. The law of large numbers will do the rest.

I recommend risking no more than 1% of your bankroll on any casino offer. When you get in to the more advanced high risk offers then I’d recommend reducing that down to 0.5% and even 0.25% to give you a buffer.

Evaluating other casino promotions

The welcome and reload bonuses are probably the most common casino offers, but there are other opportunities for advantage gambling. You will often find refunds, free spins, and other deals. If you want to learn if they have a positive expected value, the process is very similar to deposit bonuses.

Simply find out the following: how much is up for grabs, how much you have to wager, and what’s the house edge. Once you have these, you can find the expected value of the offer. If it’s positive, go for it.

Sports betting advanced techniques

There are other opportunities besides arbitrages and matched betting in sports betting too. A lot of the time, they are related to certain sports offers like refunds / money backs. According to them, the bookie will give your money back if your bet loses and certain conditions are true.

For example, your correct score wager will be refunded if a football match from the English Premier League ends 0:0. When you see something like that, there’s money to be made. You can place a wager on any other score, then go to Betfair and lay it. You then have the chance to trigger a large refund by taking a small potential loss. If you balance the amounts right, there is a lot of money to be made in the long term.

There are plenty of opportunities related to price boosts, horse racing, and more. You can even make money from land-based bookies thanks to sharbing. The opportunities are endless if you follow one simple rule – always look for positive expected value. After all, this is how the bookies and casinos have been making money for ages.

Final Words

As you can see, it’s not impossible to actually beat the online gambling operators. Since most people are losing money, there are pockets of positive expected value. The advantage gambling approach allows you to recognize them and capitalise. The best news is that both your bankroll and skill level will grow as you keep pushing advantage gambling.

The best place to learn advantage play strategies is using Profit Maximiser. All of the systems and strategies are layed out step-by-step so you can start profiting from bookmakers and casinos immediately.

The post Everything you need to know about Advantage Gambling appeared first on Mike Cruickshank.