https://mikecruickshank.com/soccer-widow-review/ Sun, 25 Nov 2018 10:40:42 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.1 https://mikecruickshank.com/soccer-widow-review/#comment-917 Sun, 25 Nov 2018 10:40:42 +0000 https://mikecruickshank.com/?p=27264#comment-917 I did get this book after reading this blog, its basically about that the public opinion allows the bookie to set the odds outside the fair odds, like for a strong favourite they can increase the price so much that it becomes value if you lay it, vice versa for an underdog. Simple supply and demand.
If she is right then I can see how this would work.

]]> https://mikecruickshank.com/soccer-widow-review/#comment-894 Wed, 21 Nov 2018 11:15:26 +0000 https://mikecruickshank.com/?p=27264#comment-894 Mike, you should make your own service based on it so other people don’t have to learn it.

]]> https://mikecruickshank.com/soccer-widow-review/#comment-560 Tue, 18 Sep 2018 22:17:20 +0000 https://mikecruickshank.com/?p=27264#comment-560 Her model for the “Value Calculator (VC)” consists of taking the last 25 matches of both opponents as well as their head-to-head stats (“H2H”) as a “correction” factor and averaging them – calculating probabilities by counting. The only feature she uses are goals (results). Sorry, this is one of the most naive prediction models I have seen and it would be interesting to know, if this model is able to keep the bankroll constant not accumulating losses at all. As evidence she’s pointing on a spreadsheet screenshot from 2012, where she multiplied her bankroll by a factor of 5 with just 274 (!) bets within 6 months, which shows that she’s either cherry picking results or that she shouldn’t invest so much work in her web site since she can make 50.000 € out from 10.000 € just by using her own tools she’s developing anyway because she sells them. A user is asking in the comments (in 2016) why 25 and why H2H and if this is due to deeper mathematical investigation and she answers that “the 25 games are important, and the 6 H2H’s are a correction factor…” and “…yes, there is a lot of mathematical research behind it”. Come on… you can find much better articles on how to build prediction models on the Pinnacle web site. There are YT-videos and websites with introductions about prediction models for value finding, making similar naive but even better models, yet telling the visitors that this is only to explain the term of a model and that these models would never be profitable on the market. There are some interesting articles for beginners on her website, but there is not one article that convinces me that she is able to develop a long-term profitable mathematical model. But there are articles and products she’s selling that convince me that she has no idea of how to build a model for professional betting.

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